Nuus uit die Skool 1

Dit was toetsweek op kampus hierdie week en ‘n klompie van die dosente het die kans gebruik om self weer in die klas te sit.

Stata training

Stata opleiding in TRADE se nuwe lokaal in die EW

Die opleiding was oor die gebruik van Stata (ekonometriese sagteware) om sg. “gravity” modelle van internasionale handel te beraam. Die aanbieder was Cristian Ugarte van UNCTAD se Virtual Institute in Geneve, Switserland.

Cristian het ons meer geleer van die gravity spesifikasie van ‘n regressie-model en die harde werk om ‘n datastel daarvoor reg te kry. Bilaterale uitvoere tussen alle lande, met hulle BBPs en afstande tussen die lande is nie iets wat mens op een plek van die internet aflaai nie. Hierdie data en dié van al die ander veranderlikes wat mens wil insluit moet uit verskillende bronne saamgevoeg word tot ‘n bruikbare datastel.

Wanneer jy eers die data reg het, is daar ander interessante vraagstukke, byvoorbeeld, hoe hanteer jy die nulle wanneer lande nie met mekaar handel dryf nie? Tobit model, of Heckman twee-stap? Vir navorsers was dit ‘n baie interessante vier dae en ons wil graag vir Cristian en die Virtual Institute bedank vir die geleentheid. Prof Wilma Viviers en Marlise van TRADE het hulleself oortref met puik reëlings en verversings.

 

Happy blogiversary 1

This blog turns 1 today! On the 23rd of April 2012 we make the first “Welkom” post and the rest is history.

HT Chris Blattman

HT Chris Blattman

Over the year we made 167 posts. The all-time views are difficult to pin down, but at 21:25 yesterday evening we were at 14871 views.  Our busiest day was on 24 June 2012 when we reported on the launch of the TRADE research niche area and the book on Export Promotion.

Our all time top-5 pages were:

  • the Home page.
  • ATKV debat page
  • Research page
  • Nagraads / post-grad page
  • Tourism economics page.

The top-5 posts that got the most views over the past year were:

  • The impact of tourism on poverty in South Africa.
  • BRICS: Who are they, where are they going, do they really matter?
  • The strong-Rand, weak-Rand debate.
  • TRADE and the export promotion book launch.
  • Chinese FDI in Africa.

I want to take this opportunity to thank all the contributors of original posts and those whose posts we could reblog. A big thank you goes out to everyone who follow the blog, the people who have commented on posts, the regular and infrequent readers.

Since the School started this blog there has been a number of offshoots and now Riaan, Carike and Requier are blogging. TRADE is soon to get its own web page.

There are still some big plans for this blog, so stay tuned. It is still much more fun than writing papers!

 

Economic growth prospects 2

Last week Rand Merchant Bank economist Ettienne le Roux spoke at the School’s seminar series.  This post draws on my notes from his presentation, Global challenges meet domestic imbalances, and examines the growth prospects for the South African economy.

Ettienne se slides

The first step in any such analysis is to have a look at the current state of affairs and in a week of growth scares and a fall in commodity prices, it did not look good.  Since the global financial crisis, emerging market economies have topped the growth charts, but the US and EU are still deleveraging (in the EU to the point of crisis).  Growth rates in real GDP per capita over the period 2008 to 2012 (total over the period, not average annual rates) shows that the US economy is today 3% bigger than in 2008.  The Eurozone is 3% smaller and Spain’s economy has shrunk by 8%.  In comparison, growth in China was 45%, in India it was 33% and in Brazil 7.5%.  The South African economy grew by more or less 8% over the five year period.

This does not really set the scene for export-led growth for South Africa.  Exports to Europe and North America still account for more than a third of our total exports and these economies are bound to grow slowly for some time.

But the South African economy has grown a bit from the 2008 peak – so where did this growth come from and can it be sustained?

More…

Nuus uit die Skool Reply

Hierdie was so besig week dat daar nie kans was vir ‘n opinie-stuk nie en dit is weer Vrydag en tyd vir die nuus uit die Skool:

Prof Wilma in aksie by DIRCO

Prof Wilma in aksie by DIRCO

  • Personeel van die Skool het hierdie week onder die TRADE vaandel opleiding aangebied by DIRCO. Die werk was saam met ‘n span van ITRISA en IBIS en die opleiding was vir  buitelandse ekonomiese verteenwoordigers wat in Suid-Afrikaanse ambassades regoor die wêreld geplaas gaan word. Prof Matthee het ‘n oorsig gegee oor die internasionale ekonomie en internasionale handelsbetrekkinge. Prof Krugell het die Suid-Afrikaanse ekonomie bespreek. Prof Viviers en Dr Steenkamp het meer verduidelik van handelsanalise en die gebruik van onder andere TradeMap en die DS-Model.
  • Dr Henri Bezuidenhout het die week deelgeneem aan IHS Global Insight se Indaba in Mafikeng en ‘n aanbieding gemaak oor BRIC direkte buitelandse investering in Suid-Afrika.
  • Donderdag het Mnr Ettienne le Roux van Rand Aksepbank by ons seminaar gepraat oor die Suid-Afrikaanse ekonomie en die vooruitsigte vir groei. Daar is goeie notas gemaak en ons hoop om ‘n opsomming-post hier te maak, iewers in volgende week.
  • Volgende week is toetsweek op kampus, so ons wil graag vir alle ECON, EKIP en EKRP studente sterkte toewens.