- Saam met die nasionale begrotingsrede in die Parlement vind die Nedbank / Ou Mutual Begrotingskompetisie plaas en die Skool se finalis in die nagraadse afdeling, Me Chiara van Ingen, was hierdie week daar. Me Carike Claassen was daar as dosent en belowe ‘n volledige nuusberig vir volgende week!
- Verlede week het Dr Henri Bezuidenhout ‘n kursus oor “Expert negotiation” by GIBS bygewoon – daar is geen kans om meer met hom te onderhandel oor jou punte nie.
- Mnr Henry Cockeran van die Unit for Applied Risk Management by die Vaaldriekhoekkampus het ‘n gaslesing by die EKRP211 groep gegee oor operasionele risiko.
- Buitegewone Prof Gary van Vuuren was hier en het lesings gegee by ECON623, Bankrisikobestuur plus ‘n seminaar oor die gebruik van die Kalmanfilter vir voorspelling. Hy het ‘n groot kompliment gekry op die Skool se YouTube bladsy – een van die Honneursstudente skryf daar: attended our first contact session… 4-hour classes for three days, but I gotta say he is one of the best lecturers ever.
This afternoon the Minister of Finance delivers the 2014/15 Budget in Parliament and it is going to be one of the most challenging Budget speeches of the past 20 years. In our system with a Medium Term Expenditure Framework, this is not a surprise. In last year’s Budget speech and in October’s MTBPS, or mini-budget, the Minister emphasised key points that will be reiterated today:
- Implementation of the NDP.
- Reforms to build an efficient state.
- Reinforcing the fiscal stance.
In this afternoon’s speech the Minister can only tell us what has happened since October and the changes to the plans outlined in the MTEF. A key point is that economic growth has been lower than he had hoped. We saw yesterday that fourth quarter growth was slightly higher than expected at 3.8%, but the real annual GDP growth rate was 1.9%. This is lower than the 2.1% that the MTBPS projected. Slow economic growth limits the Minister’s tax income, which in turn limits his spending proposals. At best we will watch the Minister treading water, maintaining spending on infrastructure and the social wage, but with limited proposals for additional spending. In fact, he is likely to announce slower rates of increase in spending than set out in the MTEF. More…
Next week Wednesday the Minister of Finance will be delivering his annual Budget Speech in Parliament. It is an election year and everyone has policy proposals that they would like to see implemented to foster economic growth, increase employment and reduce poverty and inequality. This week the ISS produced their three scenario’s: Bafana Bafana, A nation divided and Mandela magic. Yesterday the DA set out their plans for growth and jobs.
Some recommended reading is Johan Fourie’s blog post today, asking Is inequality good or bad?
And last week Prof Krugell had some views on the Schools blog (in Afrikaans) as to whether the Minister can use fiscal policy to stimulate aggregate demand and boost growth.
Whatever your views, we think that you should send the Minister some advice. On the Treasury’s page, click on the link to the Budget tips!
After last evening’s State of the Nation Address and with the Budget speech coming up on the 26th of this month, everyone has views on South Africa’s political and economic outlook in an election year. In this short video Raymond Parsons and Theo Venter of the Potchefstroom Business School give their assessment.