Forecasting Workshop 3



Tourism Research in Economic, Environs and Society (TREES) at the North-West University, South Africa, is the leading research entity in Tourism Economics in Africa. TREES recently hosted a focused workshop on forecasting tourism demand. The aim of the workshop was to discuss and evaluate recent developments and best practices in forecasting tourism demand. The workshop took the form of a one-day intensive work session and took place on the 17th of September 2012, at the North-West University Campus in Potchefstroom, South Africa.

The analysis showed that forecasting is not only important for policy and planning purposes, but the analysis makes it possible to have a closer look at price and income elasticities. Price elasticities indicate how sensitive tourists are to price changes and have implications for the competitiveness of destinations. Income elasticities indicate how tourism demand changes when incomes change. This differs depending on the business cycle and there was some evidence of people “vacationing with the Joneses”.

The resources are here:

  • Prof. Haiyan Song: Combining statistical and judgemental forecasts via a web-based tourism demand forecasting system
  • Prof. Gang Li : AIDS models for tourism demand modelling and forecasting
  • Prof. George Athanasophoulos: Using the fpp package in R for forecasting tourism flows
  • Prof. Egon Smeral: The business cycle, varying tourist behaviour and forecasting performance
  • Prof. Andrea Saayman: Tourism Forecasting in South Africa – some perspectives
  • Prof. Stephen Witt: Practical Tourism Forecasting: the Example of Asia Pacific

Following the workshop there was also time for a quick safari and unforgetable African experiences:

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